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September Mortgage Rate Forecast


Mortgage Rate Outlook

The Canadian five-year qualifying mortgage rate briefly moved higher in the third quarter, rising by ten basis points to 4.74 per cent before swiftly falling back to its historical low of 4.64 per cent. There are currently two primary sources of upward pressure on mortgage rates in the near term. The most immediate remains the stance of US monetary policy. The US Federal Reserve remains determined to raise its overnight rate this year, possibly as soon as its next meeting in September. While the Fed’s last rate increase had little impact on Canadian rates, the market may see a second tightening as a true shift in the Fed’s view toward future tightening.